Archive for the '2008' Category

Bowers has come to the grim conclusion that the only way out of the Iraq War is to wait two years for a potential Democratic president. Of course, there are many other ways for a Democratically controlled Congress to bring an end to our involvement in Iraq.

What's more, arguing on March 1, 2007 that a Democratic party that doesn't take serious steps to end our involvement in this war will retain the public's trust and will be competitive in 2008 might be asking for more than the Democratic base and swing voters can give. Are they going to vote Republican? Probably not. Is a sizeable segment going to stay home? Very possibly.

What should the Democratically controlled Congress do? What can they do? For starters, they can declare two things:

1. We will do everything possible to have our troops out of Iraq by X date.

2. We will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.

With a strong majority of the American people wanting the war to end, how could this be either bad policy or bad politics?

In light of the post yesterday by Kos citing polling that shows that people are, in order, comfortable with voting for an African-American (84%), a woman (78%), a Mormon (58%), a 72 year old (43%), or someone married for the third time (54%), it's interesting to see whether people know which candidates fit in these categories.  

According to a new Diageo/Hotline poll,

When asked to select which category best describes a candidate's age, a majority of voters chose correctly for HRC, John Edwards and Giuliani. However, 41% believe McCain is 55-64. The senator is currently 71 years of age. Obama, 45, was also mistaken by 43% for being in the 35-44 range.

So only 43% of voters claim to being comfortable voting for a 72 year old.

John McCain is 71 70 - Hotline's mistake but no need to repeat it.  Only 59% of voters know this.  That's a (further) drop in popularity waiting to happen.

It also makes you wonder how many voters know about Giuliani's two previous marriages.  Whereas, rightwing slurs notwithstanding, few people are likely to be surprised by the news that Hillary Clinton is a woman.

Update: Ok, I missed how bad it was.  In comments, Adam B points out that it's worse than Hotline makes it look - only 26% of voters know McCain's over 65.

29.  Please tell me which of the following categories you think best describes John McCain's age. Please stop me when I read the right category. If you are not sure, just tell me and we'll move on.

   (READ CHOICES)
   TOTAL
   18-24: 0
   25-34: less than 1%
   35-44: 3%
   45-54: 11%
   55-64: 41%
   65-74: 24%
   75 +: 2%
   Don't know/Not sure: 18%

• Lieberman's acolytes in the Connecticut legislature seeks to regulate political blogging. The proposed legislation is so unconstitutional it's laughable, but can you expect anything less from the professional thugs and liars in the Lieberman crowd?

  Connecticut bloggers should target these officials in primaries. Every last one.

• The Philly Daily News polls 2008 general election matchips with Giuliani, Obama, Clinton, and McCain going up against each other. The verdict? Republicans win (PDF) all four matchups.
• The Politico let itself be used by Dan Gerstein to settle old political scores.
• Who knew that Keith Olbermann was killing Democracy?
• The Internet kills.
• James Cameron says he found the Jesus family grave.
• What was the first thing bought on eBay?
• NJ-Sen: With Lautenberg's numbers not looking great (as with the numbers for every single politician in New Jersey), let's encourage Republicans to sink a new round of millions into a state that they simply will not win.

The poll is over a month old, but still relevant, especially since today sort of morphed into "Senate Day" on the site.

SurveyUSA. 1/12-14. Adults. MoE 4% (12/8-10  results)

Cornyn is up for re-election in 2008. I included the Hutchinson numbers to demonstrate that Cornyn isn't suffering from the downturn in his party's fortunes. Even Bush is far more popular in Texas than elsewhere in the country.

SurveyUSA. 2/9-11. Adults. MoE 4.1% (1/12-14 results)

The locals can better explain why Cornyn is so little liked in the state, but his numbers are terrible, well into the danger territory making him a juicy target.

Several names have bandied about by Texas Democrats, including turncoat Henry Cuellar (who I'd love to see crushed in a primary, his House seat going to a real Democrat). But there's a name I haven't seen publicly, but whispered on the ground.

I won't reveal confidences at this time (no need to paint a bulls eye on his/her back this early out), but if this candidate runs, we'd have a genuine people-powered candidate in the Lone Star State. In fact, of all potential candidates I've seen so far this cycle, this person excites me most of all.

It's still Texas, and it's still inhospitable territory for statewide Dems (none who have won a race in several cycles), but Texas will definitely be on the radar screen as a second-tier opportunity with real chances of jumping to the top-tier.

SurveyUSA. 2/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (1/12-14 results)

SurveyUSA. 2/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 4% (1/12-14 results)

Bush is in the gutter. McConnell is now in the red sub-50 percent danger zone. Kentucky Republicans are in full civil war mode, desperately trying to distance themselves (via Ann Northup's primary challenge) from disastrous Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

Ben Chandler would be our best bet for the seat, but there's little incentive for him to pull the trigger for the 2008 race. Senile Sen. Jim Bunning will either retire in 2010, or will present a much easier knock off target than the king of the Kentucky GOP. In the meantime, Chandler gets to enjoy life in the majority in the House.

This is a race that will definitely be a contest, our opportunity to avenge Daschle's ouster in South Dakota when he led Senate Dems.

Huckabee has failed to get any early traction in the presidential race, leading Republicans to push him into the Arkansas Senate race.

Arkansas is often listed among the top Republican pickup opportunities in the country, but Huckabee is the only Republican who matches up to Pryor and there are no comparable alternatives, observers say.

Although those close to Huckabee chalk up the Senate talk to overanxious bloggers and speculation, some see Huckabee-for-Senate as a real possibility and most Republicans make it clear they would welcome him home [...]

Even if Huckabee were to enter the Senate race, Republicans see the 10-year governor as an underdog. Despite his long tenure in state government’s top office, he was reelected with just 53 percent of the vote in 2002, which was less than Pryor’s 54 percent in a good year for Republicans nationally.

Huckabee is the only option Republicans have for a serious challenge to the popular freshman Democrat -- the only Democrat to pick up a Senate seat in the brutal pro-GOP 2002 mid-terms, and he did so by taking out an incumbent Republican.