Archive for the '2008' Category

Good news:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) has accepted a job as Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell’s Business Advocate, making it highly unlikely that he will run for his old seat [...]

His decision indicates that Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., who defeated Simmons in the closest race of the 2006 cycle, will have a smoother re-election ride than many anticipated.  This has traditionally been tough terrain for national Republicans; President Bush only won 44 percent of the vote here in 2004.

Remember Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs? I wrote about him last week:

[O]ne can’t help but get a little cynical hearing Obama talk about “changing the tone” and all that bullshit, while hiring a well-known smear-meister best known for his work trashing other Democrats.

Maybe I shouldn't be so cynical.

Obama repudiated the hardball tactics of his own staff. And he made it seem he was clueless about a major story dealing with his own campaign.

In a front page New York Times interview published Friday, Obama suggested that his marching orders to stay on the high road were ignored, quite a public flogging.

Obama, in his two-week old campaign, is offering himself as the antidote to a cynicism he asserts is poisoning U.S. politics. One of Obama's stump lines goes something like this: His rival in the Democratic primary "is not other candidates," he says, "it's cynicism."

Gibbs and Wolfson mixing it up is campaign business as usual. The back-and-forth, however, exposed Obama to a risk -- being called a hypocrite.

Obama decided not to handle matters internally, however.

"I told my staff that I don't want us to be a party to these kinds of distractions because I want to make sure that we're spending time talking about issues," Obama told the paper. He added, "My preference goinard is that we have to be careful not to slip into the game as it is customarily played."

Now Obama's desire to retain the high ground may not survive the heat of combat the closer we get to the primaries. But it was baffling to get down in the muck this early in the process.

Still, Obama didn't smack down Gibbs private, he did so publicly, in about the highest-profile publication in the country (and its front page).

That's called "sending a message".

(p.s. I'm still cynical, but receptive.)

It's important to remember that as much progress as we seem to make, the long-term struggle is by no means over nor even close to being finished.

We have worked hard to build a movement to do battle against the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy. That machine has chewed up and spit out countless Democrats, rendering them a hollow shell of what they used to be. For decades, it was easier for a Democrat to go along with the right-wing agenda than to face the wrath of the combined might of the right-wing Mighty Wurlitzer.

Then we bloggers came along, and Air America, and ... well, that's it. We're laughably small compared to what the Right can throw at our side. But we're growing and have shown Democrats that there's reward for standing for strong progressive principles. We have shown that we can also deliver some measure of pain to the other side. We've shown that the political and media landscapes are changing, and that we no longer have to pretend that Fox News is a serious news operation.

The best thing Barack Obama may have done this young primary season was to freeze out Fox News after their "Madrassas" smear of him. I don't know if he's still cutting them off, but fact is, he sent an unmistakable message -- he'll only deal with legitimate news operations, and Fox News ain't one of them.

This was a huge step forward. Fox News is unabashedly movement oriented -- focused on promoting Republicans at the expense of Democrats. Every decision they make, from top to bottom, is predicated on that very simply mission.

But they cannot exert serious pressure on media narratives unless it creates some semblance of respectability. Its so-called "fair and balanced" nonsense. It's much easier to ignore Newsmax as partisan dribble. But when reporting news, any "serious" news operation gets deference by its peers. And Fox News has taken advantage of that deference to promote some of the worst smears against Democrats. Yet for years, Democrats have helped fuel this right-wing propaganda arm by appearing on their various programs, lending it an air of legitimacy.

But I suppose politics is about measuring baby steps. And the Nevada Democratic Party's decision to give Fox News rights to one of our field's debates sets back much of our hard work.

Would Republicans hold a debate on Air America? Would they live blog on Daily Kos? Only if they were idiots. But apparently, that very simple notion eludes our top Democrats.

And not just in Nevada. Howard Dean has endorsed the effort as a way to, um, let Fox News talking heads make fun of Democrats to a large audience:

But the Nevada party organizers -- and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean -- said Thursday that while they may not think much of Fox's reporting, they want to reach out to viewers of the largest cable news network, one with double the number of prime-time viewers of CNN. And one whose believability is much higher with Republicans than Democrats, according to a 2005 study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism.

First of all, the number of people who watch cable news is tiny. O'Reilly's show draws just a bit over 2 million people. Not exactly the masses. Cable news is literally just a couple of notches above the blogosphere in terms of overall audience. And I don't say that to puff up the blogosphere, but to deflate cable news.

But more importantly, why do you think conservatives watch Fox News? Because they worship at the altar of their pundit heroes -- Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Brit Hume, John Gibson, and their special little friends like Bill Bennett, Ann Coulter and the like.

That's who the viewers tune in to hear. That's who they trust.

So logic would dictate an easy answer to this question --

It's not a trick question.

So where does that leave us? The genius at the Nevada Democratic Party who negotiated the agreement with Fox is stepping down, so he doesn't give a shit what people think. It's no longer his problem.

Harry Reid is playing stupid and passing the buck, wondering why anyone would think that he, the highest-ranking Democrat in the land, might have any influence in his own state of Nevada. Don't look to him for leadership on this. He's apparently perfectly happy helping legitimize Fox News. Apparently, he has no problems with them trashing him like this, this, this, this, this, this, and this.

Howard Dean has forgotten his own battles with Fox, and is now eagerly helping legitimize the right-wing's smear machine. Perhaps there's a limit to how long one spends in DC before they lose common sense.

So it comes down to the candidates.

The second- and third-tier candidates are desperate for any exposure, and won't turn down the debate. But a couple of the top-tier candidates have complained about the heavy debate schedule. So once again, here's a chance to clear up some of that calendar for more productive endeavors.

Skipping this debate will have a second positive effect -- gratitude from lots like me who don't appreciate Democrats bolstering the enemy's smear propaganda machine.

Granite State Poll (PDF). 2/1-5. Adults. MoE 4.2% (9/06 results)

Is there any doubt that we're seeing the Iraq factor at play? No wonder Sununu is literally running away from reporters. Both are now under the 50 percent "endangered" line.

While Gregg has four years to try and turn things around, Sununu must face the music next year. And with the resurgent New Hampshire Democratic Party gunning for him, and a near-bankrupt NH GOP forced to send a big check to their Democratic counterparts every year for the next five years, his prospects look tough indeed.

Meanwhile, let's check in with our new Democratic House incumbents:

That's a fantastic job by Shea-Porter of boosting her name ID. She'll need it as she faces a tough rematch against the very guy she ousted last year, Jeb Bradley.

Race Tracker wiki: NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02

The conventional wisdom in and out of Louisiana is that Gov. Kathleen Blanco is dead woman walking. The DNC isn't ready to call it quits -- apparently committing $3 million to bring down the top Republican challenger Bobby Jindal's numbers. Indeed, the only way Blanco could win this thing at this point is to make Jindal radioactive.

But there's the X factor complicating matters -- will former Sen. John Breaux enter the race? Breaux has "demi-god" status in Louisiana, and his entry would instantly give Democrats the upper hand in the contest. While his politics are infuriating at the national level, Breaux is a solid party guy at the local level and shares much of the credit for our past two tough victories in the state (Blanco and Landrieu). The GOP thinks it can take the state legislature with Blanco dragging down the Democratic ticket (it's 24D 15R in the Senate, 62D 32R in the House). Breaux at the top would make that increasingly unlikely.

If he runs, Republicans will argue that Breaux doesn't meet residency requirements and sue to keep him off the ballot. The 2007 governor's election would then be just about decided in a courtroom.

To be eligible to run for a statewide elected office, the Louisiana Constitution requires that a person be a “citizen” of the state for “at least the preceding five years.”

Breaux is registered to vote and lists his primary address in Maryland, about 70 miles from Washington, where he works for the lobbying firm of Patton Boggs. Breaux changed his voter registration to Maryland after he retired from the U.S. Senate in 2005, according to documents reviewed by The Associated Press.

Along with the Louisiana Republican Party, another interested observer who'd rather Breaux not run is probably Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu is easily the most endangered Democrat up for reelection in 2008, and one of the plusses going into that race is that the state GOP doesn't have any top-tier challengers to throw at her.

The most popular Republican in the state is easily Bobby Jindal, and if he's hanging the curtains in the State House, he can't challenge her endangered seat. But if Breaux sends him back to the House, the restless Jindal (the House is so beneath him...) will have only one other place to go, and Landrieu will face an even tougher job than she already does.

Race tracker wiki: LA-Gov, LA-Sen

February 2007 GOP CC:  The Looking For Mr. Goodbar Edition

Late January and early February didn't see anything earthshattering happen over in the airport hotel singles bar that is the Republican primary campaign.  Sure, there were a few developments, but as of today, most Republican voters are still warily measuring up the skeevy, unattractive, intellectual-toupee-wearing candidates ineffectively groveling for their affections.  

How did the GOP electorate -- as fine a collection of upright, moralizing Americans as Chuck Norris, Patricia Heaton and Jim Caviezel could hope to find were they to host Republican Idol on PAX TV -- end up in a place like this, surrounded by cheap, slick political gigolos on one hand, and poor and unattractive conservatives on the other?  Where are the Mr. Goodbars of yore -- the dashing and wealthy Reagans and Bushes, who would gaze deeply into young GOP souls with their steely eyes and earnestly whisper sweet nothings about tax cuts and the right to life -- and mean every word?  In 2008, there's not one to be found.  Our beleaguered voters are left to choose either A) one of the lying, secretly liberal hustlers who cavort with homosexuals and IRS agents on the DL, or B) one of the homely and penniless true believers, who, while nice boys, live in their parents' basements.  Shucks! What's a voter to do?????

Top Tier

1) McCain.  He's still top of the flops, because he's still the Establishment Candidate, and because Rudy's rise still seems so implausible.  But the polling has gotten really ugly, with Rudy up 10-20 points in the most recent national surveys.  And yet . . . if it's not McCain, then who can realistically win the tainted chalice that is the GOP nod?  Despite his terrific month, Rudy is a longshot, for reasons that everyone knows too well.  Romney is falling apart in slow motion.  Nominating Brownback would be suicide.  Huckabee may actually be living in his campaign office, if not his parents' basement, given his money troubles.  Newt is too busy preening on the sidelines to actually run.  This field is so pathetic that McCain could end up backing into the nomination.

2) Giuliani.  I quote my analysis from last month, which is even more true now than then.

. . . he's likely to raise great gobs of money (he plans to raise $100M by year's end), and he's polling really well, as you can see elsewhere on this page.  Yes, I'm aware of his multiple defects.  Yes, I realize that, were he to win the nomination, there would almost certainly be a serious Christian Right defection to a third party campaign.  But everything is coming up Rudy right now.  And if this is a realignment year -- if the Establishment can't deliver the nomination to its candidate -- who's to say that Rudy couldn't motivate the silent majority of Republicans to fight off the far right and realign the party toward the middle?  In any event, if the primaries started today, he'd be sitting pretty.

You want an example how how nicely things are setting up for Rudy?  California has moved its primary to February 5.  If there's one early primary that Rudy can win, it's California -- especially if Ahnold were to get behind his fellow Red Tory.  (It's worth noting that Schwarzenegger demurred when asked if he was endorsing McCain at a joint presser earlier this week.)  And as The Right's Field notes, even fringe wingnuts like Maggie Gallagher are starting to wonder whether it's worth selling out to keep the White House.  It could happen, folks.  The field is that weak.  (But I'm still fairly certain that he'll experience a complete meltdown in a debate or press conference by Thanksgiving.)

Second Tier

3) Romney.  When the biggest news of the month is that you're getting accused of anti-Semitism because of where you held your announcement speech, your campaign is in trouble.  And the light is shining brighter than ever on Mitt's Lincon Chaffee-esque past, which must scare party regulars.  And the NRO staff, which hertofore has treated Mitt like the second coming of Bill Buckley, seems to be a bit disillusioned.   But he does still have money in his wallet, and Jeb Bush on his side.  So that's something.  Unfortunately, unless he sheds his Mormonism along with his gay-loving, pro-choice social views, I can't see him going anywhere.

4) Brownback.  By default.  He's the strongest real wingnut in the pool right now because unlike Huckabee, he's actually raising money, and he has a bona fide campaign apparatus.  But they wouldn't be stupid enough to give him the keys.  Would they?

5) Huckabee. A dKos darling -- I'd say that half of the GOP Cattle Call regulars have Huck pegged as their dark horse to win the nomination.  Unfortunately for Huckabee, Republican voters have yet to see the genius pol that so many of us see in the Huckster, as he's polling in Hunter Territory (i.e., around 1%).  Plus, as our own Arkydem has shown, Huckabee may soon be surrounded by serious scandal.  But he's still second tier, if for no reason other than that there aren't any other serious candidates to fill the spot.

Third Tier

6) Duncan Effing Hunter.  I never thought I'd end up ranking Duke Cunningham's best friend, because I figured that he'd be indicted by this point.  But damn it if he hasn't seperated himself from the rest of the chaff, simply by dint of hard work and getting his mug on TV.  Kudos, Congressman Hunter.  Receiving this ranking from the leading pinko blog may be your greatest achievement this campaign, but it's still better than anything Gilmore is doing.

Non-candidates and those who might as well be

Well, let's see . . . Ron Paul finally finished his website . . . Tancredo is getting out-xenophobed by Hunter -- and without his Kolorado Korps Badge for Excellence in Xenophobia, Tancredo's just another angry Republican guy in a cheap suit . . . Hagel is another dKos All-Star, in that folks here think that he's a contender if he runs.  But I'm telling you -- the guy is the Republicans' Lieberman.  Democrats are convinced that he's the strongest candidate.  But his party doesn't like him -- despite the fact that he's very orthodox on most issues.  They don't like him because he seems to live to differentiate himself from the rest of the party . . . Newt is starting to make noises about running again.  He should -- he just might win if he gets in early enough.  But The Genius seems to think he can wait till the fall to get in, and I just don't see anyone pulling it off at that point . . .  Are Thompson and Gilmore actually running?  I mean, I think that Thompson, at least, could have a real impact if he raised his profile.  But so far, this pair have been as quiet as a Log Cabin member at a Opus Dei-sponsored Brownback rally.

See you next month, with more tales from the sordid side.