Archive for the 'polls' Category

David Broder is considered the "dean" of the DC punditry because ... well, who knows. I mean, this is the guy who says things like this:

It may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case.

And that wasn't in some reality-addled wingnut publication, but in the supposedly credible Washington Post.

So let's see Bush's numbers in the two subsequent weeks. (From Polling Report unless otherwise hyperlinked.)

Yeah, that's 29 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll. But lucky for Broder, that ABC News poll is clear sign of Bush's "political comeback". Color me "astonished"!

Or maybe not. But lucky for Broder, we've given him roughly two Friedman units -- until the end of 2007 -- to see whether his prediction does any better than his Iraq War cheerleading. Given his recent record, I won't be holding my breath.

Maybe Broder can claim victory when Bush bounces all the way back to 36 percent in the NYT/CBS poll.

Gallup. 2/9-11. Adults. MoE 3% (no trend lines)

McCain will be 72 years old in 2008.

Mitt Romney is Mormon.

Rudy Giuliani is married for a third time.

Newt Gingrich is married for a third time.

Update: Pew isn't giving much early hope, either.

When asked a year ago by Opinion Dynamics would, could or would not support Giuliani in a presidential election, a whopping 71 percent of voters said that they "definitely" vote for him (33 percent) or "might" vote for him (38 percent). Today just 59 percent would support (15 percent) or consider voting for him (44 percent). Note the drop of 12 points overall and the decline of 18 points in hard support.

A year ago 70 percent of the electorate stated they would definitely support McCain (30 percent) or might support him (40 percent). Today, just 51 percent of voters would consider voting for him, with a mere 9 percent giving him hard support and another 43 percent stating a willingness to support him. Note here that McCain's potential for support dropped by 19 points overall and his percentage of core backers fell a stunning 21 percent.

Aren't these bumps supposed to go up?

President George W. Bush concluded his annual State of the Union address this week with the words “the State of our Union is strong … our cause in the world is right … and tonight that cause goes on.” Maybe so, but the state of the Bush administration is at its worst yet, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. The president’s approval ratings are at their lowest point in the poll’s history—30 percent—and more than half the country (58 percent) say they wish the Bush presidency were simply over, a sentiment that is almost unanimous among Democrats (86 percent), and is shared by a clear majority (59 percent) of independents and even one in five (21 percent) Republicans. Half (49 percent) of all registered voters would rather see a Democrat elected president in 2008, compared to just 28 percent who’d prefer the GOP to remain in the White House.

And hey, Congress! Listen up:

Public fatigue over the war in the Iraq is not reflected solely in the president’s numbers, however. Congress is criticized by nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans for not being assertive enough in challenging the Bush administration’s conduct of the war. Even a third (31 percent) of rank-and-file Republicans say the previous Congress, controlled by their party, didn’t do enough to challenge the administration on the war.

"Conservative Values" versus "San Francisco Values":

The pollsters helpfully compare the failed Pelosi speakership with Newt Gingrich's successful kick-ass revolutionary one (approve/disapprove):

And so it went. Newt's best showing was in May and July of 1998, when he scored equal 41/44 ratings.

And if you want some real fun, how about CBS News' latest Bush poll?

Ha ha ha ha!

And their most recent and utterly useless one as of late has named Robert De Niro the winner of their "25 Most Shameless Paycheck Grabbing Roles In History," according to Zeenews.com:

The four-time Oscar winning actor topped the list for signing on to star in the critically and financially unsuccessful movie 'The Adventures of Rocky ans Bullwinkle' released in 2000 in which the animated characters Rocky and Bullwinkle shared the screen with live actors.

Coming in on De Niro's heels in the poll conducted by Entertainment Weekly was Richard Burton, for taking on the role of a priest in 'Exorcist II: The Heretic'.

EW has now started a list, which is ranking all past lists against each other to compete for the title of "The Top Ten Most Pointless and Least Scientific Celebrity-Related Lists in The Universe." Actually, they haven't, because apparently me wanting them to and it actually happening are two different things.

De Niro tops list for 'Most Shameless Paycheck Grabbing Role' [Zee News]

(WENN)

As we know, national polls of presidential primary candidates aren't meaningful as far as actual state primary results, but they shape coverage, perception of viability, and often fundraising.  

Washington Post/ABC News Poll,   1/16-1/19, MoE 3%, (12/11).

Democrats, including leaners:

Republicans, including leaners:

Head to head matchups, with the following caveat from kos:

Head-to-head polls invariably lead to those idiotic debates about who is more "electable". But this early, these sorts of polls are more a gauge of name recognition and latent popularity than the decisions based on year-long presidential campaigns. So I like the numbers as a baseline, but they have no bearing on the ultimate "electability" of any of these candidates. (And yeah, some of you will still make that argument as you promote your favorite, and there's nothing I can do about it.)

So this poll has things looking very stable over the past month.  It was done just as Obama announced, and finds no bounce for him from that.  Clinton, not having announced as the poll was done, edged up but within the margin of error.  She obviously continues to benefit from name recognition, as her favorable-unfavorable ratings show: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable, with only 3% with no opinion while Giuliani, McCain, and Obama all have "no opinion" responses in double digits.  Only Giuliani has higher favorables, at 61%, and no one else's unfavorables are as high - McCain is second at 35%.  As the name recognition factor diminishes, the picture will probably change.