Archive for the 'Senate' Category

The poll is over a month old, but still relevant, especially since today sort of morphed into "Senate Day" on the site.

SurveyUSA. 1/12-14. Adults. MoE 4% (12/8-10  results)

Cornyn is up for re-election in 2008. I included the Hutchinson numbers to demonstrate that Cornyn isn't suffering from the downturn in his party's fortunes. Even Bush is far more popular in Texas than elsewhere in the country.

SurveyUSA. 2/9-11. Adults. MoE 4.1% (1/12-14 results)

The locals can better explain why Cornyn is so little liked in the state, but his numbers are terrible, well into the danger territory making him a juicy target.

Several names have bandied about by Texas Democrats, including turncoat Henry Cuellar (who I'd love to see crushed in a primary, his House seat going to a real Democrat). But there's a name I haven't seen publicly, but whispered on the ground.

I won't reveal confidences at this time (no need to paint a bulls eye on his/her back this early out), but if this candidate runs, we'd have a genuine people-powered candidate in the Lone Star State. In fact, of all potential candidates I've seen so far this cycle, this person excites me most of all.

It's still Texas, and it's still inhospitable territory for statewide Dems (none who have won a race in several cycles), but Texas will definitely be on the radar screen as a second-tier opportunity with real chances of jumping to the top-tier.

SurveyUSA. 2/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (1/12-14 results)

SurveyUSA. 2/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 4% (1/12-14 results)

Bush is in the gutter. McConnell is now in the red sub-50 percent danger zone. Kentucky Republicans are in full civil war mode, desperately trying to distance themselves (via Ann Northup's primary challenge) from disastrous Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

Ben Chandler would be our best bet for the seat, but there's little incentive for him to pull the trigger for the 2008 race. Senile Sen. Jim Bunning will either retire in 2010, or will present a much easier knock off target than the king of the Kentucky GOP. In the meantime, Chandler gets to enjoy life in the majority in the House.

This is a race that will definitely be a contest, our opportunity to avenge Daschle's ouster in South Dakota when he led Senate Dems.

Huckabee has failed to get any early traction in the presidential race, leading Republicans to push him into the Arkansas Senate race.

Arkansas is often listed among the top Republican pickup opportunities in the country, but Huckabee is the only Republican who matches up to Pryor and there are no comparable alternatives, observers say.

Although those close to Huckabee chalk up the Senate talk to overanxious bloggers and speculation, some see Huckabee-for-Senate as a real possibility and most Republicans make it clear they would welcome him home [...]

Even if Huckabee were to enter the Senate race, Republicans see the 10-year governor as an underdog. Despite his long tenure in state government’s top office, he was reelected with just 53 percent of the vote in 2002, which was less than Pryor’s 54 percent in a good year for Republicans nationally.

Huckabee is the only option Republicans have for a serious challenge to the popular freshman Democrat -- the only Democrat to pick up a Senate seat in the brutal pro-GOP 2002 mid-terms, and he did so by taking out an incumbent Republican.

Really, that's the big question that would turn Virginia from a second-tier challenge to one of the top ones in 2008.

Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner is being courted by national Democrats to run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by John W. Warner (R-Va.) and is seriously considering the 2008 challenge, several Capitol Hill and state sources said.

Mark Warner had dinner with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) last month, and the two have since talked regularly about the contest, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a final decision has not been made.

Mark Warner, 52, has said in the past that he would consider a Senate bid only if the seat were vacant. But he is not ruling out a bid even if John Warner, a five-term incumbent and friend of the former governor, runs for reelection, the sources said.

M. Warner has made it clear that he plans to run for one of two offices in the next two years -- either the Senate race or the governor's one in 2009. While J. Warner has said he's not running again, we've seen such proclamations discarded in the past. And this article makes clear that the J. Warner crowd is actively working on its Plan B -- Rep. Tom Davis, while past articles have noted J. Warner's distress at his state's increasing leftward tilt and the aggressive tactics that brought down George Allen.

For perspective, note that it wasn't until late 2005 that Webb even appeared on the radar screen. His trial balloon interview in the San Diego Union Tribune took place October 31, 2005, while his formal announcement wasn't until March 26, 2006.

We've got time.

Update: Link fixed.

Granite State Poll (PDF). 2/1-5. Adults. MoE 4.2% (9/06 results)

Is there any doubt that we're seeing the Iraq factor at play? No wonder Sununu is literally running away from reporters. Both are now under the 50 percent "endangered" line.

While Gregg has four years to try and turn things around, Sununu must face the music next year. And with the resurgent New Hampshire Democratic Party gunning for him, and a near-bankrupt NH GOP forced to send a big check to their Democratic counterparts every year for the next five years, his prospects look tough indeed.

Meanwhile, let's check in with our new Democratic House incumbents:

That's a fantastic job by Shea-Porter of boosting her name ID. She'll need it as she faces a tough rematch against the very guy she ousted last year, Jeb Bradley.

Race Tracker wiki: NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02

The conventional wisdom in and out of Louisiana is that Gov. Kathleen Blanco is dead woman walking. The DNC isn't ready to call it quits -- apparently committing $3 million to bring down the top Republican challenger Bobby Jindal's numbers. Indeed, the only way Blanco could win this thing at this point is to make Jindal radioactive.

But there's the X factor complicating matters -- will former Sen. John Breaux enter the race? Breaux has "demi-god" status in Louisiana, and his entry would instantly give Democrats the upper hand in the contest. While his politics are infuriating at the national level, Breaux is a solid party guy at the local level and shares much of the credit for our past two tough victories in the state (Blanco and Landrieu). The GOP thinks it can take the state legislature with Blanco dragging down the Democratic ticket (it's 24D 15R in the Senate, 62D 32R in the House). Breaux at the top would make that increasingly unlikely.

If he runs, Republicans will argue that Breaux doesn't meet residency requirements and sue to keep him off the ballot. The 2007 governor's election would then be just about decided in a courtroom.

To be eligible to run for a statewide elected office, the Louisiana Constitution requires that a person be a “citizen” of the state for “at least the preceding five years.”

Breaux is registered to vote and lists his primary address in Maryland, about 70 miles from Washington, where he works for the lobbying firm of Patton Boggs. Breaux changed his voter registration to Maryland after he retired from the U.S. Senate in 2005, according to documents reviewed by The Associated Press.

Along with the Louisiana Republican Party, another interested observer who'd rather Breaux not run is probably Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu is easily the most endangered Democrat up for reelection in 2008, and one of the plusses going into that race is that the state GOP doesn't have any top-tier challengers to throw at her.

The most popular Republican in the state is easily Bobby Jindal, and if he's hanging the curtains in the State House, he can't challenge her endangered seat. But if Breaux sends him back to the House, the restless Jindal (the House is so beneath him...) will have only one other place to go, and Landrieu will face an even tougher job than she already does.

Race tracker wiki: LA-Gov, LA-Sen