Archive for the 'Senate' Category

Swing State Project's James L. has a great look at the Senate retirement picture. Specifically, how often those who say they won't retire, actually do.

Halfway through his Senate term, Mark Dayton (D-MN) was firmly committed to his re-election prospects (at least publicly).  He hired a new public relations firm and made plans to tour his home state more extensively to increase his visibility, while at the same time hiring top shelf talent to bolster his anemic fundraising (as of January, 2004, he had a scant $60,000 in his re-election coffers).  A year later, he had already announced his retirement.  While Dayton's move was borne out of a desire to avoid a costly defeat (something that popular Senators Warner, Domenici, and Cochran probably don't have to worry about), it does illustrate that plans do indeed change.

Take Republican Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, for instance.  In 2001, he was heavily leaning towards retirement after he lost his chairmanship of the Governmental Affairs Committee when the Democrats took control of the Senate.  However, on September 25 of that same year, he announced quite firmly that the gravity of 9/11 compelled him to seek another Senate term.  It only took a few months before he reneged in March, claiming that he didn't have "the heart" for another six years.

Or how about Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO), who in June of 2003 was fundraising at a decent clip and making statements that he was indeed going to stay on for another Senate term?  It was not until March of 2004 that he decided that another Senate term was not in the cards.

And how's this for another example?  Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ).  After the 1998 midterms, he quickly promised that he would run for a fourth term.  "I've said I'm going to run, and I intend to," he told the New York Times that November.  Three months later, in February 1999, he threw in the towel.  (But as we all know, it's funny how these plans go: Lautenberg was Torricelli's emergency replacement in 2002, and is preparing another run for 2008.)

This year, retirement possibilities Thad Cochran (MS), craaazy Pete Domenici (NM), and John Warner (VA) have already said they're running for reelection. Others who might also retire are Alaska's Ted Stevens (85 years old next year), Hagel (running for president, hinted at retirement), and NC's Liddy Dole (incompetent, with aging husband).

Colorado Republican Wayne Allard is already quitting, soon to be seen collecting green on K Street. And with control of the chamber likely to stay in Democratic hands (early fundraising hints at that pessimism), chances are, several more will eventually follow.

Maine

Popular Rep. Tom Allen appears to have a clear line in the primary, and he is easily the best bet on displacing popular Republican incumbent Susan Collins. Allen's challenge is to expand outside of his southern Maine base to the massive ME-02 district that is Collin's base. To that end, Allen has brought Heather Quinn as his finance chair. Quinn managed Rep. Mike Michaud's campaign in CD-02 in 2006, giving her (in theory) valuable insight into the district.

Allen will vie to make Collins the Lincoln Chafee of 2008. She is popular (though no recent polls exist), but represents a state that hates Bush and the war in a region in which Republicans are an endangered species. The New England states of Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island have 2 1/2 Republican Senators out of 12 and just one House seat out of 23. Throw in neighboring New York, and Republicans are down to six of of 52 seats.

As Rhode Island voters demonstrated, voters can be angry enough to overlook personal popularity to replace well-liked Republicans with more ideologically compatible Democrats.

Oregon

All the big names and even some of the mid-level ones have bowed out. Some of those considering a run, like Rep. David Wu, are less than compelling. And the state's Democratic Reps are loving their majority status in the House, something they seem to want to enjoy for a while after being so long in the minority.

So Oregon is ripe for a genuine people-powered candidate. One name I'm hearing from locals is John Kroger, a former federal prosecutor who busted mafia kingpins and Enron execs. He's been a policy aide to Bill Clinton, Tom Foley and Chuck Schumer. Another name bandied about is activist Steve Novick. Novick was the lead attorney in the Love Canal lawsuit which led to the $129 million judgment against Occidental Chemical (while serving in the Justice Department's environmental enforcement division). I guess he's short and has a wicked tongue. He's also a regular contributor at Blue Oregon.

The DSCC is already running ads against Smith, who is spinning himself dizzy trying to find a stance on Iraq that gels with his party's war lust while appeasing an increasingly angry electorate back home.

Virginia

Mark Warner will run for something, and most people think it'll be governor in 2009. The former governor refuses to betray which way he's leaning, and part of that is probably his transparent hope to be on the 2008 ticket as the VP nominee.

So if we don't get Mark to run against John Warner, who do we have on the wings? In politics you never know. It wasn't until October of 2005 before Jim Webb even hinted that he might make his run. It took several months after that for him to get drafted into the race. So it's important to note that we're still early in the process. You never know where the next Jim Webb or Ned Lamont will emerge.

But one name bandied about with some reverence is former Lt. Governor Don Beyer. He was Howard Dean's national treasure during his presidential run and was also a top finance guy in Mark Warner's aborted presidential bid. He ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1997. His "day job"? The guy runs a chain of car dealers (Volvo, Subaro, and Land Rover). Apparently he's quite the salesman, and while he passed on a Senate race against Allen this past cycle, there is great hope that he jumps in this time around.

A strong early start by a credible Democrat could actually force John Warner into retirement. The Republican incumbent apparently has little appetite for a no-holds barred contest, and dreads the thought of going through what Allen just did. Meanwhile, conservative Republicans in Virginia don't trust Warner, and thinks he's playing them. Novak wrote:

Conservatives, meanwhile, are not inclined to believe Warner's re-election intentions. They fear that Warner will wait until the deadline, and then step aside for a fellow moderate, such as Rep. Tom Davis (R). They are considering the possibility of putting a serious conservative into the race who would be ready to drop out if Warner remains in the race beyond the filing deadline.

However, it is difficult to imagine any of the stronger conservative candidates, such as Rep. Eric Cantor (R) or Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R), agreeing to such a scheme. If former Gov. Jim Gilmore leaves the presidential race in time, he could put himself forth as well. But the situation is such that the Virginia GOP is ruled by distrust, having been stung by repeated election losses in key statewide races.

Minnesota

Al Franken has announced. While I won't say I'm supporting his candidacy, I'm glad he's running. And Minnesotans have shown a willingness to elect non-traditional candidates, be they Paul Wellstone or Jesse Ventura. And Franken spent the last year building up his state's party, raising money for candidates at all levels of government in Minnesota.

Also in is Mike Ciresi, who briefly ran for Senate in 2006 before deferring to eventual winner Amy Klobuchar. As long as they keep it substantive and keep the nastiness to a minimum, this could be a very good primary. Though this early out, the field is by no means set. This could easily turn into a large field, since the MN DFL smells blood in the water.

Few incumbents are as out-of-touch with his state as Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is in Minnesota. Coleman is shaping up to be the Ricky Santorum of 2008.

New Hampshire

With Jean Shaheen still sitting on the sidelines, it seems as if half the state is considering a run. As has been well documented here and elsewhere, the New Hampshire Republican Party was absolutely decimated in 2006, with stunning losses in the state senate, House, executive board, and both House seats. I don't have a sense yet which candidates have potential grassroots/netroots backing. But again, it's early.

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p.s. This isn't an all-inclusive list. I'll update on some of the other races later.

John Sununu, two weeks ago:

Republican Sen. John Sununu told CNN Tuesday he will not support President Bush's plan to send an additional 21,000 U.S. troops to Iraq, although he hasn't yet decided whether to back a Democratic resolution opposing the move.

Well, he decided that he didn't really oppose Bush's plan. Instead, he preferred to support Bush's escalation.

Update: An even better quote from the comments:

Sununu has said the situation in Iraq can improve without additional U.S. troops if the Iraqi government takes more responsibility by deploying more of its own troops to improve security, develops a revenue sharing plan for oil profits and gives Sunnis a greater voice in the government.

Sununu said yesterday there will be a more complete debate on Iraqi policy on the floor of the U.S. Senate. The Senate is expected to debate Biden's resolution and other proposals either next week or the week after.

At that time, Republican Sens. John Warner of Virginia and Ben Nelson of Nebraska are expected to introduce their own resolution that "disagrees" with the President's plan. Sununu said the Warner resolution "is more consistent with my own views although I have not committed to vote for or against any proposal or amendment."

Alas, he decided to support Bush's escalation instead.

Chuck Hagel, two weeks ago:

This is a very real, responsible addressing of the most divisive issue in this country since Vietnam. Yes, sure, it’s tough. Absolutely. And I think all 100 senators ought to be on the line on this.

What do you believe? What are you willing to support? What do you think? Why were you elected?

If you wanted a safe job, go sell shoes. This is a tough business. But is it any tougher, us having to take a tough vote, express ourselves and have the courage to step up on what we’re asking our young men and women to do?

I don’t think so.

When I hear, on both sides of this argument, impugning motives and patriotism to our country, not only is it offensive and disgusting but it debases the whole system of our country and who we are.

My goodness. Can’t we debate the most critical issue of our time, out front, in front of the American people?

The expect it. Are we so weak, we can’t do that?

Let's try this "logic" thing out:

Time for him to go sell shoes.

Gordon Smith, four days ago:

Republican Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon and Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Patty Murray of Washington state said Thursday they would back a measure advanced by Sen. John Warner, R-Va., and a group of lawmakers from both parties. It says the Senate "disagrees with the 'plan' to augment our forces by 21,500," and urges the president instead to consider all options and alternatives.

Smith's spokesman, R.C. Hammond, said the senator "has been helping forge a middle ground in the Senate, and he believes this resolution sends a strong and responsible message that the status quo in Iraq is unacceptable."

Today, Smith voted against cloture on this very resolution.

Smith is a coward and a puppet of Mitch McConnel and George Bush and the extreme right-wing of the GOP.

He'll talk a good game:

I, for one, am at the end of my rope when it comes to supporting a policy that has our soldiers patrolling the same streets in the same way, being blown up by the same bombs day after day. That is absurd. It may even be criminal. I cannot support that anymore ... We have no business being a policeman in someone else's civil war.

But when it comes to action, he'll defer to what his masters decree.

You can't make this stuff up:

When Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) saw reporters approaching him last week, he took off in a sprint, determined to say as little as possible about a nonbinding resolution opposing President Bush's troop-escalation plan, which is expected to come before the Senate today.

"You know where I stand," the senator, who is considered politically vulnerable back home, said repeatedly as he fled down stairways at the Capitol. "I'm still looking."

Sununu is the fastest senator, having run an impressive 20-minute 3-mile race. That's a skill that'll come in handy as he continues running away from his unpopular record and those who try to call him on it.

Update: Sorry for the wierdness. I shouldn't go around overwriting posts...